Although the domestic finished products market is slow, it is expected that US scrap prices will go sideways to moderately up in November, depending on region.
With a lack of order bookings from the US finished products market, domestic scrap purchasing activity was quiet in October and domestic mills were trying to manage their inventories at comfortably low levels. However, as winter is approaching, it is anticipated that more scrap transactions will be seen in the market as domestic mills will need to secure some scrap tonnages for the difficult scrap collection winter months.
On the other hand, Turkish producers already started replenishing their scrap inventories for winter last week. Increasing scrap demand from export market has pushed the export scrap prices up. Latest export scrap prices from the East Coast to Turkey were concluded at $380 to $385/mt CFR, which is up approximately $10/mt from early October.
Therefore, with the anticipation that domestic mills will soon stock up on scrap and the support of increasing export scrap prices, it is expected that US scrap prices will go sideways to moderately up in November; prime grade scrap prices are likely to go sideways to slightly up and cut grade scrap prices will possibly to increase $10 to $20/long ton ($9.84 to $16.98/mt), depending on region.
In October, East Coast busheling scrap prices were in the level of $390 to $400/lt ($383.84 to $393.68/mt), shredded scrap prices were at $335 to $345/lt ($329.71 to $339.55/mt), and HMS I prices were between $310 and $320/lt ($305.10 to $314.95/mt).