When it comes to the forecast direction of US domestic scrap prices for July buys, opinions are varied across the country.
Earlier this month, market players became much more optimistic after many regions did not trend down nearly as much as they'd expected. Those who thought the market would be down $20/mt found prices trended down by $10/mt; those who expected down $10/lt found themselves in a down $5/mt situation. Once that happened, many felt that if the market hadn't bottomed out, it would reach bottom soon. But now, two weeks later, opinions are increasingly divided.
Some think the US domestic market is going to show great signs of strength and could settle up as much as $20/mt next month. Others feel the market will need to come down $50/mt to bring scrap more in line with iron ore pricing.
But for the most part, those who are standing in the middle may be the ones with the best gauge of what transaction ranges will look like in the weeks ahead. As it stands, the most commonly reached consensus places July at strong sideways, although prices could fluctuate slightly in either direction depending on the city and region of the US those transactions are taking place.
For now, in the Pittsburgh / Cleveland area, prices remain at approximately $366-$376/mt for HMS I/II, $406-$417/mt for shredded scrap and $427-$437/mt for busheling, while prices in the Philadelphia area have held at $345-$356/mt for HMS I/II, $371-$376/mt for shredded scrap and to $391-$396/mt for busheling.