As February scrap price predictions now point to a $10-$20/long ton decrease, sources tell SteelOrbis that there is a good possibility that US rebar mills will hold onto the $0.75 cwt. ($17/mt or $15/nt) price increase they easily pushed through for February shipments, and keep March transaction prices level. Although mill sales levels are reportedly not spectacular at the moment, there is speculation that the scrap downtrend will be short-lived--if that's the case, mills would be hesitant to give up their recent price gains for such a minor, and temporary, dip. Therefore, there is a strong chance that current US domestic rebar spot prices of $37.50-$38.50 cwt. ($827-$849/mt or $750-$770/nt) ex-mill will stay level for some time--unless, of course, scrap drops more than $20/lt, in which case mills might be forced to react.
As for imports, the weakening market in Turkey has led to an offer price drop of about $0.50 cwt. ($11/mt or $10/nt) in the last week, with prices now ranging from $35.00-$36.00 cwt. ($772-$794/mt or $700-$720/nt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports. However, prices have dropped more dramatically in the local Turkish market, and US traders expect that they might have to be a little more flexible with offer prices by next week. In response to overseas competition, Mexican mills have also dropped their offers prices, by about $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) in the last week. New offers in the range of $36.00-$37.00 cwt. ($794-$816/mt or $720-$740/nt) DDP loaded truck delivered to US border states, however, are still a bit too high to garner much interest from US buyers.