As the deadline approaches for US-based traders to order import rebar from Turkey--so it arrives prior to the trade case ruling in April--there has been a widespread effort to push prices down as far as possible. Nothing concrete has been hammered out yet, but traders tell SteelOrbis that they are trying to chop anywhere from $1.00-$2.00 cwt. ($20-$40/nt or $22-$44/mt) off the current offer prices of $30.50-$31.50 cwt. ($610-$630/nt or $672-$694/mt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports. Meanwhile, Mexican mills are reportedly still flexible with their offers of $32.00-$33.00 cwt. ($640-$660/nt or $705-$728/mt) FOB loaded rail car, but a slight firming in the Mexican domestic rebar market has given them leverage to not go too low in negotiations.
As for the US domestic rebar market, the strong uptrend seen through late fall/early winter seems to have subsided. Soft scrap prices and uncertainty regarding the trade case has stagnated US domestic rebar spot prices in the range of $33.50-$34.50 cwt. ($670-$690/nt or $739-$760/mt) ex-mill. While US mills are reportedly holding onto hope that the US Department of Commerce will slap heavy margins on Turkish and Mexican rebar mills, many others believe any duties levied will be minimal at most, leaving the door open to competitively-priced imports in the US market.