Although US rebar mills were able to maintain a neutral pricing trend after October's minimal scrap price decrease, the steep $30/long ton drop in November shredded prices finally ended US rebar's sideways-to-up trend over the last several months. Knowing that they would be unable to keep prices at current levels, mills responded to scrap this week with a transaction price decrease--however, they apparently still have enough faith in the market to only drop prices by half the raw material surcharge (RMS) reduction. Nucor announced late Tuesday a $0.75 cwt. ($17/mt or $15/nt) net decrease in rebar prices, and other major US mills are expected to follow. Because the decrease is immediate, spot prices are now in the range of $35.25-$36.25 cwt. ($777-$799/mt or $705-$725/nt) ex-mill.
Mexican mills are also expected to follow the US trend, although no formal announcement has been made so soon after Nucor's. However, it can be expected that the current Mexican rebar range of $35.00-$36.00 cwt. ($772-$794/mt or $700-$720/nt) DDP loaded truck delivered to US border states will also drop by $0.75 cwt., keeping Mexican rebar import offers to the US a firm $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) below US domestic prices. Turkish rebar offers, on the other hand, have not registered any change in the last week, due to widespread quiet activity from the Eid holiday. Once new offers become available at the end of this week or early next week, however, there is a chance that prices could soften a bit. The last reported Turkish offers were in the range of $33.75-$34.75 cwt. ($744-$766/mt or $675-$695/nt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports.