Although the US domestic rebar market is expecting an imminent price increase in response to the DOC’s announcement last week of final AD/CVD margins against Turkish and Japanese rebar, US domestic rebar mills have not released anything official. However, sources tell SteelOrbis that deals are already drying up and “hardly anything” is available at the bottom end of the current $30.75-$32.25 cwt. ($615-$645/nt or $678-$711/mt) ex-mill price range.
While most predictions for the expected price increase range from $1.00-$2.00 cwt.
($20-$40/nt or $22-$44/mt), sources say they are more concerned about the potential price increases that could result if the ongoing Section 232 investigation concludes in favor of US mills. Some sources say only specialty steel products are likely to be affected by the investigation, which seeks to determine whether steel imports harm national security. But in the event imported rebar is targeted, and prohibitively-high tariffs remove rebar imports from the market, sources say US domestic mills will “absolutely” raise prices.
At a joint AISI/SMA press conference Tuesday, SteelOrbis Americas Content Manager Katie Memmel asked the panel of steel executives whether mills would increase capacity utilization rates to accommodate the drop in overall supply if steel imports are no longer available. Nucor CEO John Ferriola replied that “of course” mills would increase capacity, but many sources dispute that assessment.
“If they increase capacity, they’ll have to lower prices to accommodate the increase in market supply,” said one distributor source. “And mills don’t exactly love lower prices.”