Activity within the US domestic rebar market has slowed as expected every summer, but seasonal demand shifts are not the only factor in the current “standstill,” according to sources. Additional delays in the Section 232 investigation have left the market “paralyzed,” with many buyers and sellers of US rebar eager for any results, whatever they might be, just to move forward.
However, the main reason for the delay indicates the results of the investigation might not be as favorable to US rebar mills as previously expected. After the G20 summit in Germany last weekend, several countries reportedly expressed their concern about the US implementing severe import tariffs on steel products, with some countries threatening to retaliate with their own tariffs on major US exports like agriculture. The possibility of setting off a “trade war” has reportedly given the administration pause, and the latest predictions for an announcement have been pushed back to August.
Some sources say they are relieved by this development, as there is significant concern that strong steel tariffs would result in immediate price increases “across the board” in the US domestic steel market. But until the investigation results are released, spot prices within the US domestic rebar market are expected to trend neutral at $30.75-$32.25 cwt. ($615-$645/nt or $678-$711/mt) ex-mill , with few—if any—deals available even to the largest buyers.