As expected, US domestic rebar mills were quick to issue price increases as soon as domestic scrap prices settled upward. CMC was first out of the gate late Monday with a $2.00 cwt. ($40/nt or $44/mt) price hike that mirrored the increase in Midwest shredded scrap prices. Gerdau quickly followed the next morning with its own $2.00 cwt. increase, and late Tuesday, Nucor (usually the first to announce), and Steel Dynamics Inc. joined the other two with the same increase amount. Effective immediately, the increase has already absorbed into spot prices, putting the new range at $30.75-$32.75 cwt. ($615-$655/nt or $678-$722/mt) ex-mill.
However, some sources are taking a cautious approach to the latest increase, which marks the fourth rebar price hike in the last two-and-a-half months. Although each increase has easily absorbed into the market, the influx of rebar imports could soon pit slashed-price small-tonnage position purchases against US domestic orders. Already, the rebar import permit total for January (72,445 mt as of Jan. 10) is over half of December’s import permit total of 135,784 mt—and there’s still three weeks left in the month.
US rebar market insiders are also looking ahead to the US DOC’s preliminary decision next month in the rebar AD/CVD case against Turkey, Japan and Taiwan. Considering a recent review of the 2014 rebar case against Turkey found no subsidies still, many sources are not confident that US petitioners will prevail in the upcoming ruling. If Turkey once again faces minimal AD/CVD margins, sources predict high US domestic rebar spot prices could “come tumbling down.”