Import rebar prices in the US have continued their upward trend, rising $0.50 cwt. ($11 /mt or $10 /nt) in the past week to a range of $32.00 cwt. to $33.00 cwt. ($705 /mt to $728 /mt or $640 /nt to $660 /nt) FOB loaded truck, in US Gulf ports.
In the short term, the pricing trend for import rebar is still up. However, Turkish producers may soon become more dependent on US orders. Booking from the US has been light during the past few months, but this has not been a concern to the Turkish mills since there has been sufficient demand from their home and other foreign markets to keep order books full until June shipment. Now, the Middle Eastern markets are not accepting the new high numbers from Turkey, so Turkish producers are hoping that the US will come to the rescue and keep prices afloat. This may be difficult though, since there is a lot of resistance to the new high numbers in the US as well. People are only buying small amounts, just what is necessary, betting that the market won't sustain these high prices for much longer.
The Turkish domestic rebar price has come down some recently along with the Turkish domestic scrap market, causing some concern, though Turkish export offers are still on the rise. However, if the US market doesn't start buying exports soon, we may see import prices peak close to today's level.
So far this year, rebar imports have been dramatically lower than last year. Data from the US Import Administration show that from January through March 2007, approximately 492,000 mt of rebar was imported into the US, compared to 605,700 mt imported during the same period of the previous year. Will the US consumers feel the shortcomings of normal rebar import volumes? Certain markets, like the US Midwest, for example, may feel the lack of import tonnage within the next few months when demand for rebar improves with the weather, and holes in inventories will start to develop.
The pricing trend for domestic rebar is still slightly up, as demand is improving and imports are still in many cases priced above domestic rebar. Domestic prices could still stand to rise at least one more time, based on the strong domestic scrap market and the lack of imports coming in for the next couple of months. Scrap prices are starting to show signs of losing steam after a very hot March. However, a small scrap price increase or decrease may not be enough to move the rebar prices in any direction. Nucor may choose to keep its rebar prices the same for May.
For now, domestic rebar prices range from $32.65 cwt. to $33.15 cwt. ($720 /mt to $731 /mt or $653 /nt to $663 /nt) FOB mill.