US rebar market – Turkish mills asking for higher prices from US customers

Import rebar transaction prices have not changed yet, but Turkish mills are raising their asking prices again. Turkish mills are nicely booked for the next few months and don't need to discount for exports to the US. When a 500-pound rebar gorilla like Turkey starts to raise their prices, the market will notice the difference. The import pricing trend has changed from “slightly down” last week, to neutral this week. On the other hand, we are hearing that distributors are selling rebars on the ground at only about $25.00 cwt., lower than the price it costs to replenish their inventories. Still, large distributor inventories will carry most import activity into next year, and this year is shut for late fourth quarter arrivals. The next big ordering period will be for January/February arrivals. Right now, the buying activity is slow to nonexistent, but the outlook for 2007 is not that grim. Most import rebar offers still range from $26.00 cwt. to $27.00 cwt. ($573 /mt to $595 /mt or $520 /nt to $540 /nt) FOB loaded truck, in US Gulf ports. Census data from the US Steel Import Monitor shows that from January 2006 to July 2006, shows that Turkey remains to be the major import source for rebar, as the country exported 701,447 mt of rebar to the US during that period; followed by Taiwan, at 207,555 mt; then Japan, at 164,069 mt; Mexico, at 74,854 mt; and the Dominican Republic, at 58,402 mt. As for the domestic rebar market, October pricing has not yet been announced, but we still hold the same opinion that the most likely scenario is that the domestic producers may increase their raw materials surcharge while lowering the base price, keeping prices steady. However, down the road, domestic producers may choose to introduce the “foreign fighter” discounts again, which used to be up to $40 /nt ($44 /mt or $2.00 cwt.) for 20' (6.01 meters) long rebars. For now, domestic rebar prices still range from $27.90 cwt. to $28.40 cwt. ($615 /mt to $626 /mt or $558 /nt to $568 /nt) ex mill. Usual price extras apply for smaller sizes and grade 60.