Although scrap prices are expected to rise in the US (and elsewhere in the world) this month, there has not been a reported flurry of billet purchases ahead of the increase. In fact, even if billet transaction prices rise in the US, sources tell SteelOrbis that purchasing activity will remain minimal because all the scrap gains this month are expected to be rescinded by May. Therefore, buyers are reluctant to take long positions on billet, which has left demand and availability steady for time being.
US billet prices for export are currently around the level of $530/mt FOB mill, and while mills are expected to bump up prices after scrap settles at a predicted $30-$40/long ton increase this month, the increase will be largely ignored. Elsewhere in the world, the best deals for billet are coming from Russian mills, which are offering at roughly $525/mt FOB mill. Billet out of Ukraine is being offered for slightly higher at $535-$540/mt FOB mill, while on the high end of the spectrum, billet from Asian sources can be found anywhere from $560-$575/mt FOB mill depending on the country. Not many changes are expected in the near-term for global billet prices, although sources tell SteelOrbis that Russian mills are slowly trying to boost prices.