As import scrap prices in Turkey declined by approximately $75/mt in January, Turkish rebar producers’ production costs have decreased, allowing them to reduce their export offers to target markets, where demand for Turkish rebar is slack. Accordingly, Turkish mills have decreased their rebar quotations to the export markets by $16/mt on the low end week on week to $398-455/mt FOB on actual weight basis, since they want to gain a price advantage in target markets in order to accelerate their export sales as rebar demand in their domestic market is quite weak.
With their latest declines, Turkish rebar export prices have continued to attract Far Eastern buyers over the past week, especially in the absence of Chinese suppliers from the export markets during the Chinese New Year holiday (Jan. 27-Feb. 2). According to market sources, Turkish steel producers have concluded several rebar deals to Singapore over the past week at $420-425/mt CFR on theoretical weight basis, following the deal concluded by a Turkish producer last week at $425//mt CFR Singapore on theoretical weight basis. Market sources state that the prospects for a continuation of lively demand for Turkish rebar in the Far East will depend on Chinese suppliers’ pricing strategies after they return from their holidays.
Currently, buyers in the UAE market are mostly postponing their import rebar bookings since domestic producer Emirates Steel Industries (ESI) still has not announced its rebar prices for February. Even though there are reports in the market that a Turkish mill has sold 10,000-15,000 mt of rebar to the country this week at $405/mt CFR on theoretical weight basis, the deal in question has not been confirmed. On the other hand, some market sources state that the conclusion of a rebar deal to the UAE at the price level of $405/mt CFR is possible under the current market conditions. While Turkish rebar offers to the UAE are now at $410/mt CFR on theoretical weight basis, firm bids of UAE-based buyers, who mostly prefer to wait for ESI’s announcement for February production before concluding new import rebar deals, are at $390-400/mt CFR on theoretical weight basis.
Meanwhile, Turkish rebar offers to the US, where Turkish mills’ sales have almost come to a halt as of the end of January, have remained stable week on week at $460-465/mt CFR on theoretical weight basis. Market sources state that they do not expect any recovery of Turkish mills’ rebar sales to the US until antidumping and countervailing duty cases against rebar imports from Turkey are announced in late February. Even though demand for Turkish rebar in the US is weak and is not expected to increase in the short term, the strong trend of domestic rebar prices in the US, where demand for domestic rebar is high, keeps Turkish rebar offer prices to the country from softening.
As for the Egyptian market, where demand for Turkish rebar has almost come to a halt due to the ongoing antidumping and countervailing duty investigation in the country against rebar imports from Turkey, bookings of Turkish rebar are not expected to recover until the situation regarding the investigations is clarified. In this context, Turkish mills are also waiting to gain a clearer picture of the situation, making no rebar offers to Egypt at present.