Although traders in the US tell SteelOrbis that the factors responsible for the downtrend in import rebar offers from Turkey are still present in the market, Turkish mills have drawn a line in the sand when it comes to prices. Current offer prices on the CFR level are stable at $450-$460/mt, which are apparently too close to domestic Turkish prices for comfort—any lower and they’d be well within the “threat of dumping” range. Now that the price bottom seems to have been reached, traders have adjusted their offer prices in the US downward a tick after an extended “wait and see” period. Offers for Turkish rebar are now in the range of $21.75-$22.75 cwt. ($435-$455/nt or $480-$502/mt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports, reflecting a minor $0.25 cwt. ($5/nt or $5.50/mt) decrease from last week, although the current CFR range has not yet factored into current sales offers.
However, even if Turkish rebar prices stay above the dumping line, sources tell SteelOrbis that US domestic mills might try another strategy to stem the flow of rebar imports into the US: petitioning the US DOC for a tariff rate quota, which would limit the tonnage allowed to arrive every month. Sources say the strategy, which hasn’t been employed for years, is a long shot, and it might not even be worth implementing now, when the annual import flood usually tapers off. But the pressure on US domestic rebar spot prices from imports is apparently so dire right now that sources say mills might drop rebar prices in the next month. Until then, US domestic spot prices are still in the range of $31.50-$32.50 cwt. ($630-$650/nt or $694-$717/mt) ex-mill.