After predictions for weeks pointed to yet another downtrend in scrap prices next month, a flurry of inventory-building buys in the scrap market has reversed expectations--and long product prices in the US are expected to follow suit. Officially, Nucor no longer takes scrap trends into consideration when setting new rebar prices, but sources tell SteelOrbis that they won’t pass up an opportunity to follow market expectations upward. Rebar transaction prices could rise by as much as $1.00 cwt. ($20/nt or $22/mt) in the next week or two, with US mills falling in line with whoever announces first. Until then, spot prices are still in the range of $33.50-$34.50 cwt. ($670-$690/nt or $739-$760/mt) ex-mill, but sources indicate that the bottom end of the range might not be available any more after this week.
As for imports, rebar offer prices have remained relatively stable, with offer prices from Taiwan still hovering around $32.00 cwt. ($640/nt or $705/mt) DDP in US West Coast ports and prices from Turkey in the range of $29.50-$30.50 cwt. ($590-$610/nt or $650-$672/mt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports. Mexican rebar offers are still approximately $1.50 cwt. ($30/nt or $33/mt) above Turkish offers, but traders tell SteelOrbis that Mexican mills are wary of taking orders that will ship after April, when the US Department of Commerce issues its next ruling in the trade case against them. As such, they are becoming increasingly amenable to deals as the shipping deadline approaches.