With the first half of January coming to an end, it is observed that this week there has been some purchase activities in the Middle East rebar market; in particular, local traders have been concluding purchases in the UAE. Although there have not been any purchases of very large tonnages, producers in the neighboring region have been relieved by the news that the UAE has started to buy materials again after such a long period. It seems possible that the purchase of large tonnages may be concluded in mid-March in the UAE, where rebar stock levels are now at fairly low levels. While the rebar prices in the UAE have this week maintained levels of $490-520/mt, it is heard that Turkish producers' rebar offers given to the UAE towards the end of this week have reached $500/mt CFR on theoretical weight basis.
Monitoring the developments in the UAE closely, the Turkish domestic market players' expectations of an uptrend in the global markets have increased following the sales activities they have been registering to the USA and the UAE, and also to Iraq, Iran, North Africa and Western Europe. Meanwhile, prices in the local Turkish rebar market have this week seen an increase. However, it is observed that this week some traders have hesitated to increase their stock levels. On the other hand, it is also observed that some traders' stock levels have reached levels of 5,000-10,000 mt. If the rebar markets maintain a consistent rising trend, the Turkish traders will likely increase their stock levels in the near future.
The large-scale investment announcements made in the USA and Saudi Arabia are music to the ears of rebar exporters to these countries. Even though the US will probably insist on the use of domestic production materials in investments such as bridges or highways, the countries that export rebar to the US will likely have to meet any shortfall in supplies. This issue is of vital importance for Turkey. However, is still unknown when these investments will become a reality.
Looking at the global rebar markets in general, it is observed that, overall, the previously dominant mood of pessimism is giving way to a certain optimism. However, the price uptrend in long products also needs to be backed up by end-user demand, whereas long product prices have so far mainly been rising due to the increasing raw material costs. In the upcoming days, we will be better able to gauge the levels of rebar supply to the overall markets, and also the response of end-user demand to these supplies.