The price of Turkish origin rebar has followed a strong trend on a US Dollar basis in recent weeks, despite the continuous fluctuation in the US Dollar/TRY exchange rate. The sales prices have touched $600/mt from time to time due to the fluctuations in the exchange rate. Local traders had not concluded big purchases up till this week; however, purchases have now started to increase. Currently, prices are at $590-600/mt. If the fluctuations in the exchange rate stop, we may see more purchase demand in the local market.
With regard to exports, the prices were at $585-590/mt FOB early this week, with some mills' offers being above this range. Although not all the Turkish mills' export markets are very active, sales to some Balkan countries and the UK, in addition to the strong local market, provide producers with support.
The price level of imported rebar in the UAE market is at around AED 2,350/mt ($640/mt) delivered to site on a theoretical weight basis for 3- and 5-month deferred payment, excluding VAT. It seems that rising import offers have not affected retail prices yet. However, if any booking is concluded at increased import price levels, this may result in a rise in the local prices as well. According to reports, the price of Turkish origin rebar is at $595/mt CFR and above on theoretical weight basis. Turkish producers think that they will be able to raise their prices further since their alternative markets have gained momentum and freight rates have also increased. On the other hand, buyers think that Chinese origin rebar, which lost its competitiveness following the implementation of the export tax, may return to the market if prices increase rapidly. This situation will gain clarity with time.
In southern Europe, Spanish mills tried to give the first positive reaction before the holiday period. The mills tried to increase their base prices, which had fallen to €280-285/mt, to €300/mt (the price level of AENOR-certificated rebar is at €520-525/mt DDP). Early this week, some buyers were able to purchase rebar at the previous price levels, even after the announcement of the new prices. However, the fact that very few mills are operating in Spain during the holiday period and that the import prices have increased may help the Spanish mills' price hike to gain acceptance.
On the other hand, no matter how hard they tried, the Italian mills were unable to increase their prices before the holiday period. It is still possible to find base prices up to €240/mt (at €440-450/mt DDP, including 60-day payment). Currently, the traders have low inventories. Producers are trying to conclude short-term sales with the expectation that the prices will increase in the upcoming period. Therefore, if the international market is strong in the post-holiday period, prices in Italy may start to climb.
Ukrainian mills are trying to keep their prices stable this month. They have made offers to Algeria and the Middle East at $520/mt FOB and $550-555/mt FOB respectively. However, buyers are trying to get reduced prices for Algeria, citing lower prices in Italy (where prices have fallen by €20/mt to €420-425/mt, compared to last month) and high inventories in Algeria. However, due to the positive trend in the billet and longs markets in some regions, the Italian mills are not willing to decrease their prices. Moreover, it is also possible that prices may increase in September after a possible rise in Europe following the holiday period.