Weakening Turkish prices are slowly filtering into the US market as US domestic prices continue to feel the pressure of low demand and softening scrap.
An increasingly weak rebar market in Turkey has led to further cuts in import offers to the US, and sources tell SteelOrbis that even with drastically reduced prices, Turkish mills are still very willing to strike deals below the common price range. However, because US demand for imported rebar is not exactly robust at the moment, inquiry activity is low and thus the new low import price range has not been fully absorbed into the US market. Sales prices in the US for Turkish rebar have only dropped $0.50 cwt. ($11/mt or $10/nt) in the last week, bringing prices into the range of $34.00-$35.00 cwt. ($750-$772/mt or $680-$700/nt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports. According to traders, though, if order activity remains lackluster, there is definitely room for prices to come down further in the near term.
Once cheaper Turkish prices work their way into the market, it will likely spur other import rebar sources such as Mexico to follow suit. While Mexican mills usually mirror US rebar market moves, both the Mexican import and US domestic market are under pressure from other factors such as low demand, and sources tell SteelOrbis that Mexican mills might drop prices before US mills make an adjustment on their own. For now, imported Mexican rebar to the US is still being offered between $35.00-$36.00 cwt. ($772-$794/mt or $700-$720/nt) DDP loaded truck delivered to US border states, unchanged from last week.
US domestic rebar spot prices are also steady this week, remaining in the range of $36.00-$37.00 cwt. ($794-$816/mt or $720-$740/nt) ex-mill, but as mentioned, prices are under increasing pressure. On top of the demand situation, speculation for November shredded scrap prices is already pointing downward, and as one Midwest distributor put it, US mills would be "deliriously happy" to hold prices firm through another scrap downtrend, as they did this month. But the chances of that are getting increasingly slim, and many expect that even a $10/long ton drop in scrap next month will lead to an inevitable decrease in US rebar transaction prices.