US HDG market sees no relief from falling prices

Monday, 25 July 2011 02:18:14 (GMT+3)   |  
       

US domestic hot dipped galvanized (HDG) spot prices have slipped another $1.00 cwt. ($20/nt or $22/mt) since last week, and the downtrend likely isn't over yet.

Over the last four to five consecutive weeks, US domestic HDG and Galvalume spot prices have declined approximately $1.00 cwt. per week, and this past week is no different. HDG base spot prices are now $39.00-$41.00 cwt. ($860-$904/mt or $780-$820/nt) ex-Midwest mill, with the prices for coating extras falling alongside. As for Galvalume, base spot prices have also fallen $1.00 cwt. in the last week to $40.00-$41.00 cwt. ($882-$904/mt or $800-$820/nt) ex-Midwest mill, but remain above HDG spot prices. Although demand for Galvalume--a niche construction item--remains lower than HDG demand, there are fewer domestic Galvalume producers, which have been focused on more profitable flats products lately, making Galvalume coil more difficult to come by.

As with domestic hot rolled and cold rolled coil (HRC and CRC), there are quite a few domestic  HDG producers operating at high (mid 70s) rates of capacity, creating profuse availability. Demand, on the other hand, remains quite the opposite, and meager activity has resulted in fierce mill competition to get orders, and consequently falling spot prices. While many HDG market players are hopeful that spot prices are close to hitting bottom--having slumped about $10.00 cwt. ($200/nt or $220/mt) in the last three months--the HDG market's fate appears to be to drift lower until at least early August.

 Cwt.Metric Ton (mt)Net ton (nt)Change from last week
US domestic HDG base price$39-$41$860-$904$780-$820↓ $1.00 cwt.
     
0.012"x40.875" G30    
ex-Midwest mill$49-$50$1,080-$1,102$980-$1,000↓ $2.00 cwt. on high end
     
0.019"x48" G90    
ex-Midwest mill$50-$51$1,102-$1,124$1,000-$1,020↓ $1.00 cwt. 
     
US domestic Galvalume base price     
ex-Midwest mill$40-$41$882-$904$800-$820↓ $1.00 cwt. 
     
0.019x41.5625 Gr80/AZ55    
ex-Midwest mill$50-$51$1,102-$1,124$1,000-$1,020↓ $1.00 cwt. 

As for imports, US interest in Mexican HDG and Galvalume for the US has been low over the past month, as typically less expensive Mexican HDG prices have been steadily on par with US spot prices. But amid recently low activity, Mexican mills have become more aggressive, lowering prices by about $1.00 cwt. in the last week. Nevertheless, Mexican HDG 0.012"x40.875" G30 prices are now $50.00-$51.00 cwt. ($1,102-$1,124 or $1,000-$1,020/nt) DDP loaded truck delivered into Houston, putting them higher than US spot prices, and thus not garnering any interest. Mexican Galvalume 0.019x41.5625 Gr80/AZ55 prices are down $1.00 cwt. in the last week, with prices just below domestic Galvalume spot prices. Even so, traders tell SteelOrbis that the spread between Mexican and US prices is too narrow, and activity remains feeble.

Import HDG offers to the USCwt.Metric ton (mt)Net ton (nt)Change from last week
     
0.012"x40.875" G30    
India*$49-$50$1,080-$1,102$980-$1000neutral
China*$48.50-$49.50$1,069-$1,091$970-$990neutral
Mexico**$50-$51$1,102-$1,124$1,000-$1,020↓ $1.00 cwt. on high end
     
0.019" x 48" G90     
China*$48.50-$49.50$1,069-$1,091$970-$990↓ $0.50 cwt. 
India*$51-$53$1,124-$1,168$1,020-$1,060neutral
Taiwan***$51-$53$1,124-$1,168$1,020-$1,060neutral
     
Import Galvalume offers to the US     
0.019x41.5625 Gr80/AZ55    
Taiwan*$50.50-$51.50$1,113-$1,135$1,010-$1,030↓ $0.50
Mexico**$49-$51$1,080-$1,124$980-$1,020↓ $1.00 cwt.
China*$52-$53$1,146-$1,168$1,040-$1,060neutral
India*$53-$54$1,168-$1,190$1,060-$1,080neutral

*DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports

**DDP loaded truck delivered into Houston

***DDP loaded truck in US West Coast ports


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