The US flat rolled market seems to have finally bottomed out, with most producers telling customers they only have a few more days to get their December orders in.
Now that US scrap prices are projected to rise in January and offshore offers are headed upward again, US flat rolled mills are eager to close their December order books, even if it means throttling back some of their capacity.
Producers will probably wait to see how their order books for January look before they announce new pricing, but if scrap prices rise in December and demand for January rollings looks decent, there is a strong chance that they will force through a price increase.
On the hot-dipped galvanized (HDG )side, domestic offers have, on the whole, dropped by about $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) within the last week, although the price trend is now neutral in light of the deadlines mills are now setting on December orders. Most domestic base prices for HDG coils now range from $30.00 cwt. to $32.00 cwt. ($661/mt to $705/mt or $600/nt to $640/nt), though some buyers comment they have seen prices as low as $29.00 cwt. ($639/mt or $580/nt) and as high as $33.00 cwt. ($728/mt or $660/nt). Offers of 0.019" x 48" G90 (0.48 mm x 1.219 m) range from $41.00 cwt. to $43.00 cwt. ($904/mt to $948/mt or $820/nt to $860/nt) ex-mill, while most domestic offers of 0.012" x 40.875" G30 (0.30 mm x 1.04 m) are also generally found at this price range.
As for imports, offers are trending up again, led by China and Taiwan, and although imports are generally not competitive in mainstream volume items, activity is heard to up over the past week or so, particularly for niche items. Traders speculate that this is because customers realize that prices are at or near the bottom, and realize that they need to get off the fence and start buying so they can fill their spring requirements. Most customers are carrying very low inventories and with domestic mills still not quoting past January and talk of Q1 domestic price increases, a lot of the "fence sitters" are getting back into the market, or at least starting to look at different offers.
For 0.019" x 48" G90 (0.48 mm x 1.219 m), Taiwanese and Chinese offers are up anywhere from $1.50 cwt. to $2.50 cwt. ($33/mt to $55/mt or $30/nt to $50/nt) within the last week, with both Taiwanese and Chinese offers now mostly ranging from $42.50 cwt. to $44.00 cwt. ($937/mt to $970/mt or $850/nt to $880/nt); Indian offers are unchanged since last week (though a price increase is expected within the next few weeks) at $41.50 cwt. to $42.50 cwt. ($915/mt to $937/mt or $830/nt to $850/nt); and Korean offers still range from $44.00 cwt. to $45.00 cwt. ($970/mt to $992/mt or $880/nt to $900/nt). All offers are duty-paid, FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports.
For the lighter gauge HDG item, 0.012" x 40.875" G30 (0.30 mm x 1.04 m), Chinese offers are up a steep $3.50 cwt. ($77/mt or $70/nt) since last week with most offers now ranging from $42.50 cwt. to $44.00 cwt. (the same offering range Chinese mills are quoting for 0.019" G90 coils). Taiwanese offers rose $1.50 cwt. ($33/mt or $30/nt) and now range from $44.50 cwt. to $46.00 cwt. ($981/mt to $1,014/mt or $890/nt to $920/nt) Korean offers still range from $47.00 cwt. to $48.00 cwt. ($1,036/mt to $1,058/mt or $940/nt to $960/nt). Mexican offers still range from $40.00 cwt. to $42.00 cwt. ($882/mt to $926/mt or $800/nt to $840/nt), though mills are mostly sold well into January; Indian offers remain at a range of $40.50 cwt. to $41.50 cwt. ($893/mt to $915/mt or $810/nt to $830/nt) but are expected to rise soon. All offers are duty-paid, FOB loaded truck except for the Mexican offers, which are delivered to the border crossing.