Hot dip
galvanized (HDG) coil prices have continued to soften in the US domestic market; however, some buyers suggest that there may be a light at the end of the tunnel, as we appear to be approaching the bottom of the market.
HDG coil prices have fallen, on average, by another $2.00 cwt. ($44 /mt or $40 /nt) since last week with spot prices for base sizes now ranging from $39.00 cwt. to $41.00 cwt. ($860 /mt to $904 /mt or $780 /nt to $820 /nt) from most mills in the Midwest region. For sizes 0.019" x 48" G90 (0.48 mm x 1.219 m), domestic mills are selling in the range of $48.00 cwt. to $50.00 cwt. ($1,058 /mt to $1,102 /mt or $960 /nt to $1,000 /nt) ex-mill Midwest. For 0.012" by 40.875" G30 (0.30 mm x 1.04 m) sized items, domestic mills are falling within the range of $49.00 cwt. to $51.00 cwt. ($1,080 /mt to $1,124 /mt or $980 /nt to $1,020 /nt) ex-mill Midwest.
The above price ranges represent a middle ground. Buyers are telling SteelOrbis that now especially, prices are beginning to vary widely depending on the type of inquiry. For simple, fast, large orders, the above numbers (and possibly lower ones) can easily be achieved, but if a buyer is looking for a small amount of tonnage in a hurry, prices could be up to $100 /nt ($5.00 cwt. or $110 /mt) higher than the aforementioned price ranges.
Market sources suggest that the $40 /nt to $60 /nt ($2.00 cwt. to $3.00 cwt. or $44 /mt to $66 /mt) decrease we have been seeing every week cannot continue for too much longer. The market may only have about another $80 /nt to $100 /nt to fall, insiders say, before reaching the bottom, which could occur in as soon as three weeks.
Though it is tough to say whether late November is too soon to expect market stability, it is generally expected that by the beginning of next year, the flat rolled market will turn around. Prices headed up too much, too fast and then, in turn, did the same thing coming down. But now, after months of corrections, the New Year may bring some stability.
On the import side, Asian offers to the Gulf and West Coasts are, on average, a few dollars lower than their domestic counterparts. There has been some traction, although with the domestic market still trending strongly down and offshore orders not arriving until mid-to-late first quarter, there still aren't too many sales taking place.
Offers from
China for HDG 0.019" x 48" G90 (0.48 mm x 1.219 m) items have decreased by another $2.00 cwt., since last week to a new level of $45.00 cwt. to $47.00 cwt. ($992 /mt to $1,036 /mt or $900 /nt to $940 /nt) duty-paid, FOB loaded truck West Coast ports.
For the same size and coating, Taiwanese offers have also decreased by $2.00 cwt. in the last week, and are now ranging from $46.00 cwt. to $48.00 cwt. ($1,014 /mt to $1,058 /mt or $920 /nt to $960 /nt) duty-paid, FOB loaded truck West Coast ports.
Meanwhile, Chinese offerings for HDG sized 0.028" x 48" G40 (0.71 mm x 1.219 m) have fallen by another $2.00 cwt. to a range of $42.00 cwt. to $44.00 cwt. ($926 /mt to $970 /mt or $840 /nt to $880 /nt) duty-paid, FOB loaded truck West Coast ports.
New offers from
India for 0.012" by 40.875" G30 (0.30 mm x 1.04 m) are now falling in the range of $46.00 cwt. to $48.00 cwt. ($1,014 /mt to $1,058 /mt or $920 /nt to $960 /nt) duty-paid FOB loaded truck Gulf ports.
For the same size and coating, Chinese offerings have fallen by $1.00 cwt. and are now priced at $44.00 cwt. to $45.00 cwt. ($970 /mt to $992 /mt or $880 /nt to $900 /nt) duty-paid, FOB loaded truck West Coast ports.
Mexican offers for the same size and coating have decreased by $2.00 cwt. Offers from
Mexico at the border crossing are ranging from $45.00 cwt. to $47.00 cwt. ($992 /mt to $1,036 /mt or $900 /nt to $940 /nt).
On the galvalume side of the market, for 0.019" by 48" AZ55 (0.48 mm x 1.219 m) items, domestic offers dropped another $2.00 cwt. to a range of $52.00 cwt. to $54.00 cwt. ($1,146 /mt to $1,191 /mt or $1,040 /nt to $1,080 /nt) ex-mill. As for imports,
Taiwan is offering at a range similar to the domestic range, duty-paid, FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports, while offers from
China are approximately $2.00 cwt. lower than Taiwanese offerings.