US flat rolled prices declined once again over the past week, but an expected increase in scrap spot prices and extended lead times indicate that the bottom might be just around the corner.
Most domestic hot rolled coil (HRC) spot prices have declined by an additional $2.00 cwt. ($44 /mt or $40 /nt) since our report of a week ago and now range from about $28.00 cwt. to $31.00 cwt. ($617 /mt to $683 /mt or $560 /nt to $620 /nt) ex-mill in the Midwest. While many domestic HRC offers are in the high $20s cwt., not all buyers will be able to contract at this price.
Most domestic cold rolled coil (CRC) spot price offers fell by another $3.00 cwt. ($66 /mt or $60 /nt) from our last report and are now in the range of about $33.00 cwt. to $36.00 cwt. ($728 /mt to $794 /mt or $660 /nt to $720 /nt).
Although flat rolled product prices may go down one more notch in the coming weeks, the significant price free-fall we have been observing week after week may soon come to a stop. One steel supplier told SteelOrbis, "We are not at the bottom now, but are very close."
The near-bottoming out of the flat rolled market is beginning to shift the mentality and actions of buyers and sellers. Scrap prices are expected to slowly begin to increase and some mills are starting to decline requests for deep discounts. Due to production cuts, they are not pressured to chase every cheap order out there.
On the import side, HRC offers remain competitive with the domestic price range, while CRC imports appear to be attracting little interest.
Mexican suppliers have lowered their HRC and CRC offerings by about $2.00 cwt. ($44 /mt or $40 /nt) since one week ago. Mexico is now offering HRC within the range of $27.00 cwt. to $30.00 cwt. ($595 /mt to $661 /mt or $540 /nt to $600 /nt), and CRC in the range of $34.00 cwt. to $37.00 cwt. ($750 /mt to $816 /mt or $680 /nt to $740 /nt) delivered to the US at the border crossing.
China's CRC offers declined by about another $2.00 cwt. ($44 /mt or $40 /nt) over the past week and are now in the range of about $34.00 cwt. to $37.00 cwt. ($750 /mt to $816 /mt or $680 /nt to $740 /nt) duty-paid, FOB loaded truck in US Gulf or West Coast ports.
SteelOrbis has learned that India is also offering CRC to the US in the range of $34.00 cwt. to $37.00 cwt. ($750 /mt to $816 /mt or $680 /nt to $740 /nt) duty-paid, FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports.
Brazil appears to have increased their import CRC offers by about $1.00 cwt. ($22 /mt or $20 /nt) over the past week and are now offering in the range of about $37.00 cwt. to $39.00 cwt. ($816 /mt to $860 /mt or $740 /nt to $780 /nt) duty-paid, FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports.
Russia's HRC import price offers remain unchanged week on week and are within the range of $28.00 cwt. to $31.00 cwt. ($617 /mt to $683 /mt or $560 /nt to $620 /nt), duty-paid FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports.