Order activity remains steady in the US domestic plate market as mid-January announced increases are being reflected in spot prices.
With the exception of a few spot deals being reported around $46.00 cwt. ($1,014/mt or $920/nt) ex-Midwest mill for February delivery, spot prices are now $47.00-$50.00 cwt. ($1,036-$1,102/mt or $940-$1,000/nt) ex-Midwest mill, a $2.00 cwt. ($44/mt or $40/nt) increase over spot ranges two weeks ago, with prices expected to move to $48.00-$51.00 cwt. ($1,058-$1,124/mt or $960-$1,020/nt) ex-Midwest mill by early-to-mid February.
For the time being, stable end-use demand coupled with less competition from the import market is keeping spot prices firm, and the plate market strong. Nonetheless, prices have risen rapidly over the past month and the market could correct itself come late spring-prices are not expected to come spiraling down however, and are likely to slowly soften after HRC prices begin an anticipated soft decline after Q1.
But for now, end-use demand continues to drive higher prices as demand from the transportation sector in the Midwest, oil/chemical refineries in the South and the growing wind energy/wind tower demand all over the US continues to keep plate mills busy with orders-most mill orders are now well into March, and expect to open April order books sooner rather than later. With lead times moving out quickly and planned outages from a number of mills expected in late March/early April curtailing supply, the plate market is expected to remain strong past Q1. And with only a handful of US mills determining transaction prices and market supply in the domestic plate market, spot prices are expected to continue to climb over the next few weeks.
Preliminary license data from the US Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis System (SIMA) demonstrate that as January 24, total import tonnage of cut-to-length plate to the US totaled 36,065 mt (license data) for the month of January, compared to 60,324 mt (license data) imported last month, and so far the lowest number imported since August 2010, when the US imported 35,150 mt of cut-to-length plate.