US CRC market “agasp” at Chinese import tonnages for September

The US domestic and import cold rolled coil markets have for the most part held steady since our last report a week ago, but the September surge of import tonnages from China seems to have turned up the volume when it comes to trade case chatter. September 24 data released by the Steel Monitoring Import and Analysis (SIMA) show that for the month of September US CRC import tonnages from China are already at 126,269 mt (license data), which is more than double their August US CRC import tonnages of 60,904 mt (license data). The biggest question at this point seems to be where CRC is in the “pending line” of trade case filings.  Some seem to think that line pipe and galvanized flats will come first, while others seem to think a CRC case could be announced as early as next week. Others say there’s still quite a bit of steel that’s set to arrive in US ports in November and December, and think the US DOC may wait until the first quarter of next year to file so they’ll be able to work those numbers into their case.  For now, service centers, distributors and traders continue to sit in a holding pattern, although trader sources say that in the absence of a filing, they’re more open to the idea of booking tons from China.

In terms of prices, the most commonly reported ex-Midwest mill spot price range continues to sit at approximately $38.00-$39.00 cwt. ($837-$860/mt or $760-$780/nt), while futures prices from India and Brazil and China have also remained lateral.  At the same time, sources close to SteelOrbis cite a strong belief that “anyone who knocked on a mills’ door with a big-sized order could probably get at least a $1.00 cwt. discount on the domestic range.”