How will the US import HDG trade case margins impact US HDG prices?

Tuesday, 31 May 2016 20:06:50 (GMT+3)   |   San Diego
       

The most commonly reported spot price transaction rang for US domestic hot dipped galvanized (HDG) coil have increased by approximately $2.00 cwt. ($44/mt or $40/nt) since our last report a week ago, which brings the current average spot market transaction range to approximately $41-$42 cwt. ($904-$926/mt or $820-$840/nt) ex-Midwest mill; the continued price firming comes on the heels of the US Department of Commerce’s final determination announcements in the US import HDG trade case, which was released on May 25.

“Everything in that announcement was to the favor of domestic mills,” one trader source said. “The US is turning into a protected market and that’s exactly what the mills wanted.”

Although the China-wide dumping rate of 209.97 percent “surprised no one,” another source added, many were surprised that the dumping rates against Korean mills were set as high as they were.

“None of us expected the Korean margins would span between 8.75 percent and 47.90 percent,” the source continued, noting that at current, Dongkik Steel Mill Co., LTD received the lowest margin. “The rest of the mills have pretty much been knocked out of the market.” In the Korea CVD investigation, mills received countervailable subsidies that spanned between 0.72 and 1.19 percent.

Indian mills, which were assessed dumping margins spanning between 3.86 percent and 4.44 percent, received countervailable subsidies that spanned between 8.00 percent (received by Uttam Galva Steels Limited) and 29.45 percent.  Other sources have indicated that based on the final determinations, Uttam Galva Steels Limited “is pretty much the only mill that can continue to ship at the US based on the final numbers.”

Traders’ interest in booking HDG coil from Indian steelmakers, however continues to trend weak.

Current ex-Midwest lead times for US HDG coil is somewhere around 10 weeks, sources note.  And while Midwest mills have not yet announced any further price increases, SteelOrbis has learned that mills have been “kicking the tires and have started to increase their quotes, but no one is biting.  At this point, scrap seems to be starting to slow down and a lot of us think that any further price increases will only serve to solidify the prices mills asked for in the last round of increases.  No one expects to pay $44.00 cwt. for domestic HDG coil.”




  Cwt. Metric Ton (mt) Net ton (nt) Change from last week
US domestic HDG base price $41-$42 $904-$926 $820-$840 up $2.00 cwt. on the low end
         
0.012”x40.875” G30        
ex-Midwest mill $49.50-$50.50 $1091-$1113 $990-$1010 up $2.00 cwt. on the low end
         
0.019”x48” G90        
ex-Midwest mill $48.50-$49.50 $1069-$1091 $970-$990 up $2.00 cwt. on the low end
         
US domestic Galvalume base price        
ex-Midwest mill $40.50-$41.50 $893-$915 $810-$830 up $2.00 cwt. on the low end
         
0.019x41.5625 Gr80/AZ55        
ex-Midwest mill $49.50-$50.50 $1091-$1113 $990-$1010 up $2.00 cwt. on the low end

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