The Indian flat steel market has continued to maintain its stable trend. Slackness on the demand side has continued again this week, while supply has maintained its strength. In the local Indian market, mills' offers for September production hot rolled coil (HRC) stand in the range of INR 30,000-31,000/mt, depending on the region. In the spot markets, ready stock hot rolled coils are being offered at INR 500-1,000/mt higher than the mills' offers.
On the import side, ex-China boron-added hot rolled coils are being offered to India at the level of $610-620/mt FOB. However, it would be difficult to affirm that Indian buyers hold a positive view of these offers. Local end-users generally prefer to purchase from the domestic market. Stocks of Chinese origin materials, which constitute a large part of the spot market, continue to melt. However, the decreasing rate of these inventories is not at the desired levels, especially given investments made and the demand coming from end-users in various sectors. The previous rapidly increasing trend of cold rolled coil (CRC) import offers from China has now been replaced by a more stable movement. Ex-China offers for cold rolled coil of 1 mm thickness are now in the range of $720-730/mt FOB. Meanwhile, Chinese origin hot dip galvanized coil (HDG) of 1 mm thickness is currently being offered to the Indian steel market at $730/mt FOB. However, SteelOrbis has heard from traders that it may be difficult for import offers for HDG to find acceptance.
In India, the export side is seen to be more active than both the import side and the local market. In traders' offers to the European markets for Indian origin flat steel products for late September shipment, hot rolled coil (HRC) base prices are standing at €540/mt CFR Antwerp, while prices of cold rolled coil (CRC) of 0.8 mm and above thickness are standing at €610/mt CFR Antwerp. However, buyers in Europe have not shown much interest in these offers, probably due to the slowness of the steel markets during the summer holidays. In addition, European buyers generally find offers given from Ukraine more workable. In the meantime, Indian flat steel producers have not remained idle given the strengthening demand in the Middle East. An Indian producer last week concluded a deal to the UAE for 3,000 mt of hot rolled coil (HRC) at the price level of $615/mt CFR and, as of this week, ex-India HRC offers to the Middle East are heard to be standing at $640/mt CFR.
The general impression in the Indian market is that prices may enter an upward trend in September. However, market players are wondering about the strategies which buyers in the local Indian market and players in China, the largest exporter to the region, will choose to follow. Most markets players are maintaining a wait-and-see stance at present. It is heard that in the coming days the Indian flat steel market may gain clarity and that market players may start to make position purchases.