Turkey's CUR begins year down

Turkey’s CUR begins year down

Turkey's capacity utilization rate (CUR) in the manufacturing industry fell to 76.3% in January 2005 from 77.2% in January 2004, Turkey's State Institute of Statistics (DIE) said today. CUR in the private and public sector fell 2% and 5% month-on-month in January, respectively. The CUR data contrasts strongly with December's robust output figures. The religious holiday in January had a huge impact on the weak CUR figures; however, CUR is expected to show a slight increase in February. In January, CUR in the automotive sector fell to 71.6%. Private apparel output CUR dropped to 82%, and private machinery output decreased to 70.9%. On the other hand, CUR for iron and ferrous metals output rose to 82.6%. Buoyant capital spending pushed up electrical machinery CUR to 83.1%. Based on the CUR data and the fewer number of working days because of the January holiday, it could be said that industrial output will decline 4-5% year-on-year in January 2005. Other economic indicators point towards a slowdown in domestic demand. The decline in passenger car sales in January 2005 is just one indicator that private consumption will likely remain relatively weak in the first half of 2005. Turkey's Central Bank business confidence index fell 1.4 points in January, mainly due to the decline in new domestic orders and weak sales.