General: Latin America's largest economy,
Brazil, and its star economy,
Chile, are doing quite well, giving the entire market on the sub-continent a very optimistic outlook.
Brazil: Driven by very strong exports, the trade surplus in March amounted to US$3.68 billion ($2.82 billion in February). Because of the impressive export drive, the GDP growth for Q1 is expected to come in at a respectable 4.25 percent. The down-side of the export boom is the appreciating local currency, the Real, which could make Brazilian exports too expensive later this year.
Consumer Price Index: + 5.3 percent (annualized) in March 2006 compared to March 2005
Industrial Output: + 5.4 percent in February 2006 compared to February 2005
Unemployment: 10.4 percent in March 2006
Crude Steel Production in March: 2'479'000 mt
Chile: The world's largest copper producer is going through a terrific export boom because of the surging demand and prices for this commodity. Which country is behind this boom?
China - who else? Copper exports in March 2006 were $2.75 billion compared to $1.7 billion in March 2005. The price of copper has reached $2.935 per pound. One problem: the huge influx of money has made the Chilean Peso extra strong and
Chile's other success story, agricultural exports, are finding it harder to compete on the world market.
Unemployment: 7.3 percent in February 2006
Trade Balance: + $9.7 billion in February 2006 for the last 12 months
Industrial Production: + 5.0 percent in February 2006 compared to February 2005
Consumer Price Index: + 4.0 percent (annualized) in March 2006 compared to March 2005
Crude Steel Production in March: 100'000 mt (estimated)
Argentina: The economy continues to recover based on a renewed sense of consumer confidence. However, inflation, low by recent Argentinean standards, is not quite under control yet. Latest figures show that Public Debt had increased to $128 billion at the end of 2005 (an increase of $3.3 billion compare to March 2005).
Consumer Price Index: + 11.1 percent in March 2006 compared to March 2005
Industrial Production: + 8.6 percent in February 2006 compared to February 2005
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): + 9 percent in 2005 compared to 2004 for a total of $4.7 billion
Trade Balance: + $11.3 billion in February 2006 for the last twelve months
Crude Steel Production in March: 505'000 mt
Mexico: Q1 2006 is shaping up quite nicely. It is estimated that the GDP growth for Q1 will be around 5.0 percent annualized. Car
production is strong. In February, 166'830 units were produced (+ 32 percent compared to February 2005). VW announced that they produced almost 100'000 units in their Puebla plant in Q1. The Central Bank reduced the overnight lending rate by 0.25 percent to 7.25 percent in March. It was the eighth successive cut.
Unemployment: 3.6 percent in February 2006
Industrial Production: + 6.0 percent in January 2006
Consumer Price Index: + 3.4 percent in March 2006
Trade Balance: - $4.9 billion in February 2006 for the last twelve months
Crude Steel Production in March: 1'430'000 mt
Venezuela: The non-oil related economy has staged a robust recovery from last year. Unemployment is declining, but consumer price inflation is still a worry.
Unemployment: 10.7 percent in February 2006 (11.8 percent in January 2006)
Trade Balance: + $31.5 billion for 2005
Industrial Production: + 13.6 percent in January 2006 compared to January 2005
Consumer Price Index: + 12.1 percent in March 2006 compared to March 2005
Crude Steel Production in March: 410'000 mt
Special Focus: Despite President Chavez' constant diatribes against the US, numbers show that the US are by far the largest
trading partner of
Venezuela. No less than 62.6 percent of all Venezuelan exports go to the US, and 33.9 percent of all imports come from the US. No other country even comes close in either category. Hasn't Mr. Chavez heard of the expression, "Don't bite the hand that feeds you?"