IISI’s global economic & steel outlook report
The International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) has released its Short Range Outlook for the Apparent Consumption of Finished Steel Products in 2005. The outlook report is in two parts: global economic outlook and the global steel outlook. According to the report, the global economy is expected to expand by 4.7% in 2004 and by 3.4% in 2005. IISI stated that the world's economy is growing at its fastest pace in the last fifteen years due to the upswing in Asia and the US. However, the sharp rise in oil prices may effect the estimated economic growth negatively. The report also shows that China's GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will grow by 8.6% in 2004 and by 8% in 2005. European Union economy is expected to expand by 2.3% in 2004 and by 2.4% in 2005 while the US economy will increase by 4.4% this year and by 3.7% next year. The growth in Turkey's GDP will be recorded as 6% in 2004 and 6.5% in 2005. According to the global steel outlook, China continues to lead global steel growth with both production and consumption rising. In Japan, steel demand is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2004. Demand is also reportedly strong in the US. In addition, European steel markets are also showing advance signposts.Apparent Steel Consumption for 2003 (actual), 2004 (estimate) and 2005 (forecast) 2003 2004 2005 Δ mmt % 04/05 EU-25 158.8 164.1 167.9 3.8 2.3 Other Europe 23.6 25.1 26.8 1.7 6.8 CIS 44.2 45.4 47.8 2.4 5.3 NAFTA 133.5 145.8 150.2 4.34 3.0 Central & South America 28.2 32.4 34.2 1.8 5.6 Africa/Middle East 42.4 44.9 46.6 1.7 3.8 Japan 73.4 76.8 76.9 0.1 0.1 South Korea 45.4 47.4 48.4 1.0 2.1 India 30.3 32.3 34.5 2.2 6.8 China 232.4 263.0 280-290 17-27 6.5-10.3 Other Asia 70.4 72.8 74.5 1.7 2.3 World 882.6 950.1 987.8- 37.7- 3.9-5.0 997.8 47.7