Analysts: Global steel output set for recovery
While most analysts are predicting a complete global, economic recovery in 2003, their forecasts remain conservative for the remainder of 2002. Experts expectations are that real recovery will only begin at the end of 2002. These projections are crucial for the steel industry as well as the impact that U.S. Section 201 tariffs have had overall on the international steel market.
Current statistics reveal the following:
World Apparent Consumption of Finished Steel Products Projection:
2.2% average annual increase (50.4 m/t) over the three-year period (2001-2003) for a total of 810.7 million tons.
World Steel Consumption Projections:
2.0% increase in 2002 (15.6 million tons to 783.6 million tons)
* 11.9 million tons or 7.0% increase in Chinese steel demand accounts for three-fourths of this increase. The rest of the global steel market is projected to increase by only 3.7 million tons or 0.6% in 2002.*
Consumption Projections for 2001-2003:
1.0% increase in 2001 (768.0 million tons)
2.0% increase in 2002 (783.6 million tons)
3.5% increase in 2003 (810.7 million tons)*Analysts Note: These projections are conservative and cautiously optimistic for apparent steel
consumption through 2003. *
Global steel production:
The International Iron and Steel Institute reported in its most current statistics, that world crude steel
production in 2001 was 840 million tons, about 1% under
production in 2000. The largest output cutbacks were recorded in the following countries:
Global Production Cutbacks:
North America 11%
South America - 4%
EU (industrial) - 3%
Japan - 3%
Russia no change
Major Growth in Global Steel Sector 2000-2001:
Africa + 9%
Middle East + 5%
Asia (developing) + 4%
* Mainland
China* world number one steel producer with increase in
production of 13% to 143 million tons
World Crude Steel Production Decreases in January 2002 from January 2001:
North America: 1.8% (9.9 million tons)
EU: 7.4% (12.8 million tons)
*
France: 14.2%
*
Germany: 14.1%
*
UK: 19.0%
CIS: 4.7%
*Total CIS output for January 2002: 7.7 million tons*
Russia - 60% of
CIS figure (4.6 million tons)
Ukraine - 6.6%
South America - 1.5% (3.3 million tons)
Brazil - 0.5%
World Crude Steel Production Increases in January 2002 from January 2001:
Africa: 17.2% (1.3 million tons)
Middle East: 4.8% (973,000 tons)
Asian: 12.7% (3.5 million tons to 30.8 million tons)
Mainland
China: 30.6% (3.4 million tons to 14.5 million tons)
Japan: 5.8% (8.5 million tons)
Forecast for 2002
Steel industry experts note that steel
consumption will be positively affected by a forecast of global economic recovery for 2002-2003. The International Iron & Steel Institute members predict that overall, real economic recovery is not slated to begin until 2003. Though, they add that there are indications of a possible recovery starting in the latter half of 2002.
Analysts agree that the degree of recovery in the U.S. economy will play a major role as an influence on the international steel market. Most economists report that the U.S. is slowly recovering but are not expecting a major recovery in that market until the latter half of 2002 and the beginning of 2003.