On October 19, US-based Wood Mackenzie, a company which provides commercial analysis and strategic advisory services focusing on the energy and metals industries, stated that metallurgical coal prices could drop from now to Q4 2012, from the current quarterly price of US$285/mt for premium hard coking coal to under US$240/mt.
Prakash Sharma, coal market analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said the fall will be largely due to the continuing global economic slowdown that is pushing down demand for the metallurgical raw commodity. Sharma also added that coal prices will continue to decline due to the recovery of supply from flood-hit basins earlier in the year.
Wood Mackenzie also noted that, despite near-term downward price movements, several factors have the potential to change this trend. The ongoing flood problems in Queensland, Australia, mine mergers in the United States and workers' threats at mines operated by the BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance would contribute to the support of prices.
"Demand growth will be led by emerging markets, with Asia accounting for 75 percent of global metallurgical coal demand by 2030," Mr. Sharma said.