Developments in Turkish longs sector & outlook

Tuesday, 08 April 2008 13:50:23 (GMT+3)   |  
       

In his speech made during the SteelOrbis Spring 08 Conference and 58th IREPAS Meeting, Dr. Veysel Yayan, Secretary General of the Turkish Iron and Steel Producers Association, stated that the Turkish construction sector has grown by 15 percent on average in the last three years but declined to five percent in 2007 - in parallel with the economic growth in Turkey at an average of 7.2 percent each year during the 2002-2006 period followed by a slowdown lately due to global crises and political instability.

With Turkey's steel export sales growing at an annual average of six percent and domestic consumption at an average of 15.7 percent, Turkish crude steel production is rising at an average of 12 percent annually, having reached 25.7 million mt in 2007.

The share of flat steel production in Turkey's overall steel output last year increased by three percent to reach 15 percent, and, with the new investments due in the coming years, the share of longs production in the crude steel capacity of the Turkish steel industry is expected to fall further.

After the considerable decline in 2001 resulting from the economic crisis of that year, in parallel to the economic growth observed since then (in the last three years in particular) and to the resulting high growth rate of the construction sector, Turkey's long products consumption has shown an upward trend during the last six years, growing by 189 percent from 3.9 million mt in 2001 to around 11.5 million mt in 2007. During the same period, capacity utilization rate of crude steel production for long products rose by 26 percent.

Turkey's long product exports increased by around 81 percent from 5.9 million mt in 2001 to around 10.7 million mt in 2007. Although long product production exceeds domestic demand, According to Mr. Yayan, in recent years the Turkish long products market has been characterized by high domestic demand in addition to increased domestic crude steel production, basically supported by a reduction in longs exports and an increase in billet imports.

Today, the major export market for Turkish rebars is the Middle East and Gulf countries, indicating an increasing trend particularly over the last year. EU countries are in second position with rather stable growth. Back in the 90s, the Far East was the biggest export destination with a 40 percent share; however, with China transforming itself into an exporter, this share has since dropped. Fluctuations in the US economy and the influence of Chinese exports have diminished the share held by the US in Turkey's long steel exports

Because of free trade agreements between the North African countries and the European Union, Turkey's long steel exports to these regions started to decline in recent years. The Middle East and Gulf region has the biggest share among the other markets, and Turkey's long steel exports have increased to the Gulf region, which has been boosted by high oil industry revenues. Turkey's long steel exports to the European Union countries are basically in a stable position.

Mr. Yayan continued his presentation by stating that during the next five-year period, depending upon the completion of new capacity-related investments, particularly for flat products, it is also expected that Turkey's internal steel demand will basically be met by domestic production, that the export-import ratio will again exceed 100 percent, and that per capita steel consumption in Turkey is likely to reach the level of 500 kg.


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