SteelOrbis Shanghai
Following a year on year decline in the August pig iron and finished steel outputs, China's pig iron, crude steel and finished steel in September saw an overall drop in output, with an acceleration of the decline rate also observed.
China's crude steel production in September totaled 39.6142 million mt, down 3.955 million mt or 9.1 percent year on year. Average daily production during the month reached 1.3205 million mt, down 52,700 mt or 3.8 percent month on month for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, crude steel production for the January-September period reached 390.9527 million mt, up 22.9014 million mt or 6.2 percent year on year.
Taking imports and exports into consideration, the newly-added supply of crude steel to the Chinese market in September totaled 33.6542 million mt, down 5.5581 million mt or 14.2 percent year on year. From January to September, the newly-added supply reached 351.8827 million mt, up 33.3806 million mt or 10.5 percent year on year.
In the month of September, China's exports of crude steel accounted for 18.3 percent of total national crude steel production; meanwhile, crude steel exports in the first nine months of this year covered 13.3 percent of total production.
China's pig iron production in September totaled 37.5495 million mt, down 2.4505 million mt or 6.1 percent year on year. At the same time, total pig iron production in the January-September period reached 366.7352 million mt, up 17.6336 million mt or 5.1 percent compared to the corresponding period in 2007.
China's finished steel production for September totaled 45.9208 million mt, down 2.6594 million mt or 5.5 percent year on year. On the other hand, national finished steel production from January to September inclusive reached 445.1508 million mt, up 33.3240 million mt or 8.1 percent. Among the 23 categories of finished steel, there was a drop in the outputs of ten categories in September, with narrow HR strip posting the sharpest decline of 1.07 million mt or 31.8 percent year on year.
China's coke output in September totaled 25.6648 million mt, up 2.8336 million mt or 9.9 percent year on year, but down 4.0033 million mt or 13.5 percent compared with August. Meanwhile, national coke output for the January- September period reached 257.8820 million mt, up 19.3844 million mt or 8.1 percent year on year.
China's ferroalloy output totaled 1.5997 million mt in September, up 39,900 mt or 2.6 percent year on year, but down 98,500 million mt or 5.8 percent from August. For the January-September period, on the other hand, national ferroalloy production reached 14.6043 million mt, up 1.9851 million mt or 15.7 percent year on year.
In September, China's iron ore output totaled 64.8277 million mt, up 7.3783 million mt or 12.8 percent compared with the same month last year, an increase of 2.4176 million mt or 3.9 percent compared with August. The January-September iron ore output reached 585.6005 million mt, up 94.9996 million mt or 19.4 percent year on year.
Looking at the current market situation, China's steel market is thought likely to trend down - though at a slower rate - in the fourth quarter, with fluctuations also expected. In the fourth quarter, national crude steel output is expected to decline further, with a daily yield of 1.25 million mt, a fourth quarter gross yield of 115 million mt, and annual production of 500 million mt. Affected by the global economic crisis, a gradual softening will undoubtedly be seen in demand in the global steel market. In addition, due to the steel production capacity increase in other countries, China's steel exports will register a significant decrease. It is foreseeable that the current year will turn out to be a peak year in steel output, and that China's steel production will in the long term find it hard to surpass the production levels of this year.