China could be top automaker by 2020
By 2020,
Chinas annual auto output will reach 14 to 18 million vehicles, exceeding that of the US and thrusting
China into the pole position among global manufacturers.
Zhang Xiaoyu, honorary director of
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, indicated that
Chinas automobile industry is now in a fast-growing stage.
Chinas 2005 auto output is likely to exceed 5.6 million vehicles, thus
China would rank as the worlds third-largest auto producer this year.
Chinas auto output in 1999 was 1.87 million vehicles, ranking it 11th in the world at the time.
At present, the automobile industry has been one of
Chinas mainstays, with annual sales volume of RMB 1 trillion ($124 billion) and annual revenue of RMB 0.1 trillion ($12.4 billion). Two million people work in this industry, and another 20 million people work in auto-related industries.
Chinas auto market is evenly divided among state-owned, private and foreign-funded enterprises.
China accounts for nearly 40 percent of world auto capital and about one tenth of the global auto market.
Zhang Xiaoyu indicated that with the implementation of
Chinas macro-economic measures,
Chinas auto industry is now restructuring at a moderate pace. After several years of lightning fast expansion, the growth rate fell to 15 percent last year. Through the first nine months, the growth rate of the auto industry was 10 to 12 percent. The annual growth rate is expected to be more than 10 percent.
The future growth rate of the auto industry is estimated to be somewhat higher than that of GDP. The annual growth rate will be around 10 percent over the next five years, and it will then settle to around seven percent from 2010-2020. By 2010,
Chinas annual auto output will be 8 to 10 million vehicles, meaning that the country would overtake
Japan as the worlds second-largest automaker. By 2020,
Chinas annual auto output could reach 14 to 18 million vehicles, which would knock the US out of the top spot.
SteelOrbis Shanghai