The American Trucking Associations' advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index was unchanged in July after increasing 1.1 percent in June. (June's gain was slightly smaller than the 1.2 percent increase ATA reported on July 25.) Compared with July 2011, the SA index was 4.1 percent higher, which was the largest year-over-year gain since February 2012. Year-to-date, compared with the same period last year, tonnage was up 3.7 percent.
"July's reading reflects an economy that has lost some steam, but hasn't stalled," ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. "Certainly there has been some better economic news recently, but I continue to believe we will see some deceleration in tonnage during the second half of the year, if for nothing else but very tough comparisons on a robust August through December period in 2011."
Costello said he believes the slowdown in new factory orders will constrain manufacturing output, which will impact truck freight volumes. Additionally, he is concerned about the recent jump in the total business (manufacturing, wholesale, and retail) inventory-to-sales ratio. "Unintended gains in inventories will hit trucking negatively as the supply chain works off stocks." Costello kept his tonnage outlook for 2012 to the 3 percent to 3.5 percent range as reported last month.